US to endure social distancing until 2022, if anti corona vaccine was not found
US scientists warn of prolonged social distancing
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The US may suffer social-distancing including stay at home and closure of businesses and educational institutions until 2022, if no vaccine was quickly found, scientists and researchers warned.
That’s according to researchers from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, who published their findings in the journal Science on Tuesday. Those findings directly contradict research being touted by the White House that suggests the pandemic may stop this summer.
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The team at the Harvard School of Public Health used what’s known about Covid-19 and other coronaviruses to create possible scenarios of the current pandemic.
“Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available,” they wrote in their report. “Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.”
The Harvard team’s projections also indicate that the virus would come roaring back fairly quickly once restrictions were lifted.
“If intermittent distancing is the approach that’s chosen, it may be necessary to do it for several years, which is obviously a very long time,” Dr. Marc Lipsitch, an author on the study and an epidemiology professor at the Harvard School of Public Health, told reporters.
Another important factor: Whether people become immune to the new coronavirus after they have been infected. That’s not yet known.
Potential challenges include finding a reliable test to determine who has antibodies for the coronavirus, establishing the level of immunity conferred by previous infection and how long it lasts, and the capacity of overstretched health systems to carry out reliable, widespread antibody tests in the general population.
Courtesy: CNN